Agricultural Sector Growth and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria (1984–2024)

• Post by: birpo
• August 17, 2026
• Comments off

Ogbuehi Ifeoma Lucinda ¹ & Prof. G.D Isiwu ²

Abstract         

This study investigates the agriculture–economic growth nexus in Nigeria using annual time-series data from 1984 to 2024 and a parsimonious ARDL (2,2,1,2,1,2) model. The ARDL bounds test provides no evidence of a confirmed long-run cointegrating relationship. In the short run, exchange rate dynamics emerge as the most statistically significant factors within the estimated specification, while the agricultural-sector variables are individually statistically insignificant. This pattern suggests weak macroeconomic transmission between agricultural performance and aggregate economic growth amid persistent exchange-rate instability. The findings contribute empirical evidence on how macroeconomic instability may weaken the agriculture–growth transmission channel in an externally vulnerable, import-dependent economy, with implications for the sequencing of agricultural investment policies and macroeconomic stabilisation measures in Nigeria.

Keywords: Agricultural Sector Growth, Economic Growth, Agricultural Exports, Government Expenditure, Exchange Rate.

Cite: Ogbuehi I. L.  & Isiwu G. D. (2026). Agricultural Sector Growth and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria (1984–2024). International Journal of Management Foresight and Strategy,4(6), 434-451. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21976023